Week 16 Recap (Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2025) — Navigating Calm Before the Storm

This week was all about discipline over excitement.
With the FOMC meeting midweek, the market’s tone was cautious — and so was mine.
Instead of chasing large moves, I focused on small, controlled trades, booking quick gains when they appeared and staying out when risk wasn’t justified.

In hindsight, this week wasn’t about maximizing profit.
It was about protecting capital and maintaining emotional balance in an event-driven environment.


💼 Trade-by-Trade Breakdown

DayStrategyLotP/LReturnNotes
1069/23 DC (Weekend Carry)3+$118+0.8 %Closed Monday morning after SPX opened higher on positive news.
1069/23 DC (Automated)3+$253+1.8 %Closed early to avoid FOMC volatility later in the week.
1062/7 DC7+$626+2.2 %Calm, intraday theta scalp before close.
1072/7 DC11+$1,038+3.7 %Quick 27-min trade; booked profit ahead of FOMC.
1089/23 DC2+$339+2.8 %Closed within 30 minutes to avoid IV crush and event risk.

Weekly Total: +$2,374
📈 Weekly Return: +3.1 %
💰 Cumulative Capital: $74,896


🧭 Weekly Overview

This was one of my lowest-risk weeks in recent memory — not because of the number of trades, but because of how calmly they were executed.
The system triggered setups as usual, but my discretionary judgment kicked in when FOMC volatility came into view.
I followed a “quick in, quick out” approach, aiming to secure theta without absorbing overnight gamma exposure.

Even though the total profit was modest compared to previous weeks, it reflected one of my key trading goals:
learn when not to push.


📊 Key Observations

1. Event Weeks Demand Adaptation

Backtests can’t fully capture event volatility weeks like FOMC.
When uncertainty is high, even small profits are valuable — it’s about staying alive, not getting rich.

2. IV Crush = Silent Killer for Calendars

After major announcements, implied volatility typically collapses.
For double calendars, that’s like watching the air go out of your tires.
By closing early, I avoided the silent decay that hurts slow movers.

3. Automation + Awareness = Edge

Automated entries work beautifully, but discretion around exits during macro events can amplify edge.
This week proved that manual oversight during Fed weeks complements automation — not contradicts it.


💭 Reflection

This week reminded me that trading is 90% emotional management and 10% execution.
The hardest part isn’t placing orders — it’s managing expectations.
There’s a false comfort in thinking “I could have made more,” but in event weeks, not losing more is the real win.

“True consistency isn’t about constant gains — it’s about constant control.”

I’ll take small greens like this every week if it means staying emotionally stable and capital-intact for the long haul.



🔭 Looking Ahead to Week 17

  • Resume normal 2/7 DC entries post-FOMC once IV stabilizes.
  • Reassess volatility environment before reintroducing larger lot sizes.
  • Continue reinforcing psychological detachment from daily results — focus on system execution, not emotion.

⚠️ Disclaimer


The information presented in this blog post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All trading strategies discussed reflect my personal experience and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security or derivative.

Trading financial instruments such as options, futures, or stocks involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use of this information is at your own risk.

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