“Sometimes, the Best Trade Is No Trade”
After the storm of Week 18, this week was all about restraint.
There were no trades placed — not because of hesitation, but by design.
With NVIDIA earnings inflating short-term option premiums and pushing implied volatility beyond normal ranges, sitting on the sidelines was the smartest move.
🧠 The Setup
The 2/7 DTE Double Calendar model thrives when volatility is stable but slightly elevated — a balance between theta decay and predictable range movement.
However, earnings weeks like this one distort that equilibrium.
Leading into NVIDIA’s report, short-dated SPX options were priced for massive moves.
Even minor shifts in spot could cause asymmetric losses, especially with vega exposure.
Rather than forcing trades into unfavorable conditions, I made the conscious decision to skip the week entirely.
💹 Why No Trade Is a Trade
Sitting out isn’t inactivity — it’s strategic patience.
The backtest curve looks smooth only because it assumes you know when not to engage.
Real-world trading adds emotional friction: the urge to “make something happen.”
But this challenge isn’t about daily excitement. It’s about long-term statistical survival.
Avoiding suboptimal setups protects more capital than winning a small trade ever could.
🧭 Reflection
This week reminded me that discipline isn’t only about exiting losses — it’s about avoiding noise.
After the volatility spike from Week 18’s loss, patience felt uncomfortable.
But skipping this week was exactly what a data-driven trader should do.
I’ve learned that:
- Volatility control is risk control.
- The best setups appear when most traders have overreacted.
- Cash is a position — and sometimes the most powerful one.
“Trading is 90% waiting, 10% execution. The edge lives in the waiting.”